THE NEW INDEPENDENT STATES OF INNER ASIA AND TURKEY'S POLICY

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1.    PREFACE

        " The New Independent States in Inner Asia and Turkey’s Policy” is a joint project between National Policy Research Foundation – Turkey, and National Institute for Research Advancement - Japan.The research project consists of 1250 pages - 4 Volumes..

          This study is not a definitive history of Inner Asia, nor is it an ultimate analysis of the region from an economic and political perspective. It is a presentation of Inner Asia from the early history to the present time and covers a general outline of the political developments which might take place in the region in the near future.

          The aim of this study is to provide the reader with basic information regarding historical, linguistic, economic, political, anthropological and sociological aspects of Inner Asia and its relations with the Republic of Turkey, with an integrated, inter-disciplinary and comparative approach, and thus, to compile a “detailed handbook” of the region offering easy access to a wide range of essential and detailed information.

        We hope that this study will be useful especially to the entrepreneurs who are eager to establish economic relations with the region because predictions about the future, which constitute the most important determinant factor for any investment, cannot be concrete without an accurate insight into various aspects of the past. The greatest difficulties that we faced during the preparation of the text were the multi-disciplinary character of the study, the very long span of time it covered and the different geographical regions it encompassed. We tried to overcome these problems by utilizing the enormous amount of articles and URL documents (which add up to almost 40,000 pages), thanks to the literature boom regarding the region which is observed throughout the world, especially after 1990.

        Book I describes the historical, anthropologic, linguistic, ethnic and sociologic aspects of Inner Asia and draws attention to the complexity of the problems facing the region in the pre-Soviet era. Ethnic migrations to Anatolia from Inner Asia and the state structure of Russia which greatly affected the political institutions of the region are also presented in this section.

        Soviet rule over the region with its different aspects are studied in Book II. Relevant detailed statistical data are also presented in the same Book.

        Book III dwells on the developments in the region after the sudden collapse of the USSR. It also deliberates on detailed country profiles, relations between Turkey and the region and the future scenarios. Contributing papers and appendixes are presented in the fourth Book.

 Top of page

2. IMPORTANCE OF THE REGION: A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

        From the second century B.C. to the fifteenth century A.D., Inner Asia played a determinant role in the world history. Its nomadic pastoralist economy which took shape in the “steppe zone” of the region with its horse culture and mounted archer cavalry units, not only deeply affected the surrounding sedentary civilizations, but also shaped the modern nations of our times by the “migration of nations” caused by waves of invasions by the Turkic steppe nomads to many regions of the world, especially to Eastern and Central Europe.

        Throughout history, climatic conditions have played a great role in determining the social and economic life of Inner Asia. Cold winters, very hot and dry summers, big differences between day and night temperatures as well as salty and barren lands made it impossible for peoples of Inner Asia to establish long-term, sedentary civilisations which were well balanced and basically agricultural.

        The nations, or in more precise terms tribal confederations which were pushed Westwards from the Inner Eurasian continent by the invading Turkic steppe nomads, were able to establish sedentary-agricultural civilizations in West Europe by taking advantage of favourable climatic and geological conditions of Western Europe in a rather short period of time. First emerged a sedentary-agrarian feudal Europe, followed by industrialist-capitalist Europe which derived its impetus from the economic surplus value created by the preceding agrarian feudal Europe, supported by the favourable physical environment prevailing in the region.

        During the same period, social and economic developments in Central Asia were much different and quite unfavourable. The sedentary-agrarian civilizations which were established in the “oasis-region” of Inner Asia were under the destructive pressure of nomadic raids which continued up to the 15^th century.

        Here, we must emphasise one historical fact which is constantly distorted by some social scientists with an “orientalists” approach. Nomadic raids to the agrarian areas were made by the Turkic tribal confederations for survival. The nomadic-pastoralist mode of production could not sustain its population during periods of unfavourable weather conditions, such as the Jhud phenomena, which recurred in the region several times in a century. Therefore, the only way left to the nomads for survival was to attack the agrarian areas for plundering. Nomads were fighting for their survival, they were not “blood thirsty beasts”.

        Of course, one might argue the universal conflict between nomadic and sedentary civilizations. Nomads, who depend on animal husbandry for their living would naturally want to keep vast areas as pastures. Agrarians, on the contrary, would like to convert pastures to fields so that they could have more land to cultivate different crops.

        The nomadic raids to the sedentary “oasis-zone” of Inner Asia and to the other parts of the world came to an end in the 15^th century. This date also coincides with the wide range usage of fire-arms which put an end to the superiority of the nomadic cavalry in the battlefields. The last of the great nomadic raids which poured out from the heart of Inner Asia was Tamerlane’s, which had a adverse effect on the growth of another Turkic Empire, the Ottomans.

        After the end of the nomadic raids, sedentary-agrarian civilizations in Inner Asia started their golden age. Samarkand, Bukhara, Khiva became the scientific centers of the world, where many important philosophers, mathematicians, astronomers etc. created their masterpieces. In this period, Inner Asia caught the opportunity to narrow the gap of development between the region and Western Europe where the sedentary-agrarian civilization had been adopted almost a 1000 years earlier. Unfortunately, this historical turning point was interrupted by another historical phenomenon which blocked the momentum of the region, and this time, for a very long period of time; the oncoming of the age of “great discoveries” deprived Inner Asia from its main economic revenues.

        The discovery of the sea trade routes from Europe to India and to the Far-East negatively affected the traditional silk-road and spice-road which extended from the Far-East and India to Europe and passed through Inner Asia both from the East-West and North-South axis. Inner Asian Khanates, which had been established during the Timurid period, were gaining great material wealth from these caravan routes. The sudden collapse of these routes brought financial catastrophe to the region. Deprived of their main source of wealth, Inner Asian Khanates experienced serious financial difficulties and thus lived through extreme social distress.

        From the 16^th century to the Russian invasion which took place in the late 19^th century, Inner Asia and especially Central Asia lost its significance in the world affairs. Poverty, backwardness, epidemics and religious fanaticism were the main characteristics of the region during this period.

        By the Russian invasion, Central Asia and Azerbaijan had entered a new period, the effects of which are more or less continuing in our time. Although Russians came to the region with a colonial mentality and mainly for raw materials, and most of all for the raw cotton, they also brought with them modern technology, transport facilities and social dynamism.

        The October Revolution of 1917 ended up with the formation of the USSR in 1922. Turkestan Soviet Socialist Republic in Central Asia was the first state to be established within the borders of the USSR and it passed through political reshaping several times up to 1936. The situation in Azerbaijan was similar to that in Central Asia. Three of the Caucasian republics, namely Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia were united under Transcaucasian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic. However later on, they were dissociated. With problematic border rearrangements and with settlement of different ethnic groupings, five different republics, namely Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyztan were established. The main principle of all the dominating powers, “Divide et Impera” played a determinant role in these political re-shaping procedures. During the Soviet rule, Central Asia and Azerbaijan were exploited as a raw material source by the industrial parts of the USSR. In all fairness, many positive changes, such as widespread literacy, adequate health services, proper housing, infrastructure etc. were also secured during the same period.

        After the sudden and unexpected collapse of the USSR in 1991, Uzbekistan Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Azerbaijan became independent states. Their struggle is continuing at full speed to design a proper way of development and to integrate their social and economic structures with the Western world.

Top of page

3. THE OIL FACTOR AND THE GEO-POLITICS OF THE REGION

        After independence, new independent states of Inner Asia became the focus of the “Great Game" of the superpowers of the world. The reason for this attention is well known: the enormous underground resources of the region, especially oil and natural gas.

        The total area of Central Asia and Azerbaijan is 3,937,600 km²; Kazakhstan 2,717,000 km²; Uzbekistan 447,400 km²; Turkmenistan 488,100 km², Kyrgyzstan 198,500 km² and Azerbaijan 86,600 km². This area is nearly 5 times bigger than the area of the Republic of Turkey and it is almost 2/3 of the area of the whole European continent. The region is land-locked, only Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan are bordering with Caspian Sea, which also is a land-locked lake, except a narrow access to the open seas through the Volga-Don river-canal system. Although the region stretches through such vast territories, it is scarcely populated, except for some oasis areas of Uzbekistan; Tashkent, Bukhara, Samarkand, Khiva and Ferghana Valley and urban regions of Azerbaijan such as Baku, Sumgait, Genje.

        This huge land mass contains enormous underground wealth. Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan together own the third largest oil reserves in the world, after the Middle East and Siberia. Also Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan own almost half of the known natural gas reserves of the world. Besides oil and natural gas, the region is very rich in strategic resources such as uranium, gold and non-ferrous minerals. Since the capital, technology and know-how which are necessary to exploit these resources do not exist in these countries, the resources will have to be exploited and transported to the world markets by the superpowers of the world. Also, the neighbouring countries which will host the pipeline systems of oil and natural gas to the open seas and consumer markets are deeply involved with the developments in the region.

        Inner Asia has once more become the focus of interest in the world affairs because of its enormous underground energy resources, which is the most essential factor for Western civilization.

Top of page

4.     THE IMPORTANCE OF THE REGION FOR THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY

        It is a well known historical fact that at least a considerable part of the Turkish people living in Turkey today are the grand-grandsons of the Turkic tribes that migrated from Central Asia to the Anatolian peninsula from 11^th to 15^th century. Although social contact between the Western Turkish world (including Ottomans, Republic of Turkey and the Balkans) and the Eastern Turkish World (including Central Asia, Azerbaijan, Xinhang Autonomous Republic of China and Northern Afghanistan) has been cut off for a very long period of time due to various and rather complex historical developments, the people of modern Turkey and the people of Central Asia still share many common cultural, historical, anthropological, linguistic, ethnologic characteristics. The mass migration of the Turkic tribes from Central Asia to the Anatolian peninsula marked a new period in the Turkish history. It also greatly affected the ethnic and demographic structure of Anatolia. Any contact between these two Turkic regions came to an end in the 15^th century - following the invasion of Ottoman Anatolia by Tamerlane’s armies, which was in fact the last, though destructive contact for almost 550 years. From the 15^th century on, these two Turkic regions followed almost completely different social paths. As a result, the incongruities between these two cultures, which share the same origin, intensified considerably by the passing centuries.

        Contact was re-established between these two regions after the independence of the Inner Asian republics in 1991. This time, efforts were directed to base the relationship on mutual economic interests of the two regions, although some non-realistic, emotional factors were also present. The Republic of Turkey, utilizing the experience and know-how which it had accumulated since the formation of modern Turkey approached Inner Asia with long-term credits, experienced contracting companies and with small, medium and to an extent big entrepreneurs. In spite of many mistakes which were done in the initial period, Turkish companies have successfully completed many big size projects in Inner Asian republics in the past 6 years, and many other projects are either in the planning stage or under construction. As a result, thousands of Turkish workers are employed and numerous Turkish contracting companies are active in the region. We might assume that these mutually beneficial economic relations will continue in the future.

        Turkey is also deeply involved with the future energy pipe-line projects which will carry the underground energy resources of the region to the world markets. If realized, the planned Baku-Ceyhan; Tengiz (Kazakhstan) - Caspian Sea - Ceyhan; and Turkmenistan - Iran - Ceyhan oil and gas pipe-lines will provide Turkey with a great strategic control over the energy lines which will stretch from Central Asia to Europe and the Mediterranean.

5.    POLITICAL  AND ECONOMIC   STABILITY  OF  INNER  ASIA, A

       DETERMINING FACTOR

        In the previous paragraphs, we tried to underline the importance of Inner Asia both for Turkey and for the world economy. Here we must emphasise a very determining factor which is highly crucial for the further development of the region and hence, for transferring its natural wealth to the world markets. In the coming decades Inner Asia must be politically stable in order to integrate its economy to the world market. As it is widely accepted, political stability highly depends on economic and social stability. Unfortunately the region today, lacks the necessary capital, technology and know-how to start and sustain a steady economic growth. In terms of capital, technology and know-how, the region is almost completely dependant on foreign resources. On the other hand, foreign sources are very - and sometimes over-sensitive about the social and political stability of the regions in which they are planning to invest.

          At present, the region seems to have attained political stability. However, if we examine the existing ethnic and demographic aspects of the region, we can easily come to the conclusion that the social structure of the region is potentially fragile.

          First, throughout Central Asia, and especially in Kazakhstan, the existing Slavic population, which has completely different ethnic, cultural, linguistic and religious peculiarities creates a great potential destabilization factor for the Central Asian republics. For example, in 1989 in the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Slavic population was almost 60 per cent of the total population, That means indigenous Kazakhs are in minority in their own Republic. In the Northern oblasts (provinces) of Kazakhstan, the percentage of Slavic population rises to 80-85 %. If we consider that Kazakhstan shares a border of almost 3000 kms in length with the Russian Federation, we might imagine the severity of the problem. Other Central Asian republics and Azerbaijan also have considerable Slavic minorities.

          Second, since mid-1980’s, there is a steady out-migration of Slavic population from the region. One might assume that this is a favourable factor for the region, since it will reduce the number of the Slavic population, and hence in the long run, will solve the ethnic problem. But it is a mixed blessing. The migrating Slavic population constitutes the most educated and skilled labour force of Central Asia. The mass scale out migration of this sophisticated labour force, although it decelerated in the recent years, exerts a serious strain on the economies of the Central Asian republics.

          Third, there is the demographic factor. Beginning in the 1950s, demographic trends in the Soviet Central Asian republics have been marked by fundamental changes in population size and composition: the total republican populations began to grow rapidly, and the local nationalities began to comprise an increasing proportion of these total populations. These changes were due to a high rate of natural growth and low mortality among the indigenous populations, and to a lower fertility level and declining mortality among the Slavs.

          The demographic process that took place in Inner Asia after 1950’s resulted in high population growth in the region and also created a very serious problem: excess labour and underemployment. The problem was most serious among young people, especially in the female gender. Half of the unemployed population in Uzbekistan in 1987 consisted of young people under age thirty. Again in 1987, in Turkmenistan, women comprised 98 per cent of the population in the working-age bracket who were not involved in public production.

          The excess labour is not evenly distributed in Inner Asia. Labour resources in some areas, particularly in the Fergana Valley, are said to be spilling over. In the Valley’s Andizhan oblast it was reported that 18,143 Komsomol members were not working in 1986. And there were allegedly some rations in the foothills and mountains of Uzbekistan where a majority of the population capable of working were not involved in public production. The majority of excess labour has been concentrated in rural areas: in the late 1970s rural areas accounted for approximately three-fourths of those not working in the region.

          The employment situation worsened in the 1980s. In Ferghana oblast alone during the late 1980s, 25,000 additional young men and women were becoming available for work in the oblast’s farms and factories annually, yet there were enough positions only for 18,000. Of course, these figures represent only the “officially registered” unemployment numbers.

          As we can understand from the information presented in the previous paragraphs, the high population growth in Central Asia and Azerbaijan is a burden on the social and economic spheres of the Inner Asian republics, and it is expected to remain the same in the coming decades. The population growth is higher in the Southern part of the region (Uzbekistan,  Turkmenistan, Southern Kazakhstan and Western Kyrgyzstan), where the indigenous population is the majority.

          As it is mentioned before, Central Asian republics, at least for the present moment, are short of means of production such as capital, technology and know-how needed to sustain a steady economic growth. Inflation, although reduced from 2,500 % in 1992 to a mere % 60 in 1996, is also continuing.

          In addition to these economic hardships, economies of the Central Asian republics are under the increasing pressure of rapid population growth. For example, if we assume that the total population of four Central Asian republics is roughly 50 million for the mid-1990’s, and the average annual population growth rate is minimum 2 % - which is much higher within indigenous population - we will get the figure of 1,000,000 natural population increase annually for the region. As we have emphasized before, the situation is more acute in the Southern regions of Central Asia, and among the indigenous population. In short, five Inner Asian republics must feed, accommodate, educate, find jobs, supply health services etc. to an additional one million young people every year.

        If we take into consideration the growing expectations of the population which rise parallel to the increase in their contacts with Western standards, and if we keep in mind the limited means of official and private institutions in these republics, we can easily assume that Central Asian republics are going to face severe difficulties in solving the problems springing from rapid population growth in the coming decades.

          It is a well known fact that social and ethnic disturbances which are widespread in the contemporary third world countries are fueled by the poor, uneducated, unemployed etc. masses whose expectations are dim and who fail to foresee any future prospects for themselves in their homelands. These disillusioned masses are expanding each year due to the increase in population. Indeed, the number of young people who gravitate towards ideologies with false promises of a bright future is escalating.

        We might face the same phenomena in Inner Asia which might de-stabilize the region as a whole, prevent inflow of foreign means of production, and even obstruct the outflow of Central Asian energy resources to the world markets. Still, these adverse phenomena might be provoked by some foreign powers with high hopes of including the region in their scope of influence. Unfortunately, insufficient democratic conditions prevailing in these republics might act as another detrimental factor aggravating the situation.

          Here we would like to underline an important fact regarding the stability of the region. In the studies which were abundant in the early 1990’s, many scholars and politicians estimated that to attain political stability in Inner Asia was the most unlikely scenario. Ethnic chaos in Kazakhstan, emergence of fundamental Islam in Uzbekistan, bloody political struggles in Azerbaijan, etc. were predicted as the most plausable developments for these countries in the near future. However, disregarding some relatively minor incidents, the region today seems to possess a political stability in spite of all the existing problems. In our opinion, this stability will continue in the near future. However, maintaining long-term stability in Inner Asia highly depends on the flow of capital, technology and know-how to the region from developed countries, since their capabilities in these respects are hardly sufficient to sustain a steady economic growth, thus, social stability.

          We believe that Turkish companies, which have accumulated great experience in the region since late 1980s and which have successfully completed many large-scale contracts will play a very important role in the projects to be undertaken together and in cooperation with the companies of the developed countries. The existing ethnic, cultural and linguistic similarities between Turkey and the countries of Inner Asia will also contribute widely to this multilateral cooperation which will be to the advantage of all concerned.

Top of page

6.    CONCLUSIONS OF THE STUDY

 The conclusions of the study in a chronological order can be summarized as follows:

1. From 2^nd century B.C. to 15^th century A.D., Inner Asia played a determining role in the world history. Nomadic empires of Central Asia especially, (Huns, Turko-Mongol Jengiz Empire, Tamerlane Empire) changed the path of history by their raids to Europe, Middle East, India and Russia. During this period the mode of production in Inner Asia can be defined as “nomadic pastoralism”. Sedentary civilisations could only be found in the “oasis region” of Inner Asia.

    

2. Nomadic raids from Inner Asia came to an end in the 15^th century. Especially in the “Timurides period” Central Asia lived through its golden age. Samarkand, Bukhara, Khiva became the scientific and artistic centers of the World.

    

           Discovery of naval trade routes marked the end of this period by shifting emphasis away from traditional trade routes such as the silk-road and spice-road which had been supplying great material wealth to the region. Also, wide use of fire arms ended the supremacy of the nomadic cavalry which had been the main military advantage of the nomadic empires.

    

3. Starting from the 11^th century Turkic tribes migrated from Inner Asia to the Anatolian peninsula. As a consequence of these mass migrations, the ethnic and religious structure of Anatolia was greatly affected and the Turkization process of Anatolia started to take shape. Turkic tribes that migrated Westwards first established the Seljuk Empire to be followed by the Ottoman Empire which lasted up to 1923. The formation of the Shii Safevide Empire in Iran blocked all contact between the Eastern and the Western Turkic Worlds. This lack of contact which lasted for almost 550 years caused the two Turkic worlds to follow different historical paths, and hence, to widen the ethnic, cultural, linguistic and economic differences among them.

    

           Meanwhile, the region which today is called Azerbaijan was also affected by these migrations as countless Turkic nomadic tribes settled in the region. However, due to the region’s geographical character, Azerbaijan remained under the control of the Safevid Empire rather than the Turkish Empires established in Anatolia. From then on, the historical trend in Azerbaijan differed from that of Central Asia. The reason behind the differences between Central Asian republics and Azerbaijan mainly stems from their different geographical, geopolitical and historical settings.

    

4. From the 16^th century to the Russian invasion which took place in the late 19^th century, Inner Asia lost its significance in world affairs. Poverty and religious fundamentalism were the main characteristics prevailing in the region during this period. Tsarist Russia saw the region as a source of raw materials, and especially cotton. No visible major changes in the economic or social life of the region could be perceived during this period. Only the “Jedid Movement” and urbanization of the society could be considered as important changes. As for the Caucasus region, especially the Azeri lands, Russian invasion had a severe impact over Azeri society, especially after the “oil boom” in 1870s. Urban and rural areas were formed, and important ethnic clashes between Armenian and Azeri societies occurred. The most severe impact of the Russian invasion emanated through the Turkmenchai Treaty of 1828 according to which Azeri lands were divided, and while millions of Azeris remained under the control of Iran, the rest remained under the control of the Russian Empire.

    

5. After the “Great October Revolution” Central Asia, which up to that time was known as “Turkestan” was divided artificially by the Soviets into different republics. Soviets also spent great efforts to reidentify – Russify the people of the region, but could not accomplish their aim, except for a certain group of (Apparatchiks), who ruled the region in accordance with the decisions taken by Moscow during the Soviet period. Soviets also considered the Region as a source of raw materials to supply the industrialized parts of the USSR. During the Soviet period, the region suffered great ecological disasters for the sake of fulfilling the “plan targets” that were drawn up directly by Moscow. In spite of all the adverse developments, we must admit in all fairness that during the Soviet period in Azerbaijan and in Central Asia, many positive changes also took place in the spheres of industry, education, health-care, transport, etc.

    

6. In 1991, with the sudden collapse of the USSR, Central Asian republics and Azerbaijan became independent states. Except in Azerbaijan, which suffered great turmoil, this transformation took shape in a peaceful manner and the old ruling communist nomenclature remained in power in these countries.

    

           Azerbaijan’s problems had already started before the collapse of USSR, with the Armenian aggression in Nagorno–Karabagh autonomous region. This development had a severe economic and social impact over Azerbaijan. Furthermore, this conflict set the stage for the empowerment of APF under Elchibey in 1992.

    

7. After independence, the ruling elite of these countries saw Turkey as a model for their countries, because Turkey was secular, it had a democratic state system, a market-oriented economy and it maintained close ties with the Western world. As for Turkey, it was eager to find new markets for its economy and was on the look out for new alliances which might provide an alternative to its diminishing relations with the European Union. Therefore Turkey became the first country in the world who recognized the NISIA countries. The sudden emergence of the “new Turkic World” which would “shape the 21st century”, according to some political leaders of Turkey, created great enthusiasm all over Turkey.

    

8. Besides political recognition, Turkey offered a considerable amount of credits to the NISIA countries, starting from 1992. By the utilization of these credits, major Turkish contracting companies successfully completed many big and medium sized projects all over NISIA countries, and accumulated great experience in the region. According to latest information, during 1997 Turkish contractors performed 9.4 billion dollar worth of deals in the region, 6 billion dollars of which were accomplished in the Russian Federation. Contacts in the interest of all concerned were established between these companies and the leaders of NISIA countries. Also thousands of small and medium sized Turkish companies, especially in the services sector, started to operate in the region. Today ten thousands of Turkish workers, engineers, entrepreneurs are working in the region.

    

9. The initial enthusiasm of the leaders of the NISIA countries towards Turkey waned by the passing years since it appeared that Turkey lacked the adequate amount of capital and high-technology which were crucial for NISIA countries to sustain a steady economic growth. Some adverse political and economic developments in Turkey also affected the relations in a negative manner.

    

           After the formation of a secular minded new government in mid–1997 and with the recuperation of economic conditions in Turkey, the relations between Turkey and NISIA countries started to gain momentum. It is expected that this positive development will continue in the future.

    

           Regarding Azerbaijan, Turkish government’s initial negative stance towards Aliyev government and some alleged anti-Aliyev attitudes had contributed to the deterioration of relations between the two countries. Economic relations however, had continued.

    

10. Although NISIA countries established fruitful economic relations with many other developed countries, the inflow of foreign capital, technology and know-how to NISIA countries is still not sufficient to attain a steady economic growth. The economic, social and psychological conditions that these countries inherited from the Soviet period also play a negative role. We regret to say that their legacy which is displayed by lack of democratic institutions, corruption, excessive bureaucracy, lack of entrepreneurship, violation of human rights, etc. is still going on at full speed in these republics. All these negative phenomena, together with the concern over the long-term stability of the region limit the inflow of foreign investments to the region. Some positive legislative changes that have already been carried out in recent years in order to eliminate these problems must be promoted so that more satisfactory achievements can be obtained.

     

11. Another crucial factor that will determine the steady inflow of foreign investments to the region is the overall stability of Inner Asia. As it is discussed previously, today there are numerous de-stabilizing factors that threaten these countries. In spite of the worst-case scenarios that were mentioned in many of the studies regarding the region, today, Inner Asia seems to have attained social stability, at least for the near future. To attain long-run stability, to overcome the problems that have accumulated through centuries and also to satisfy the growing needs of its fast-growing young population, Inner Asia must sustain a steady economic growth. Without the inflow of foreign means of production it seems almost impossible to achieve this goal, although it is vitally important for these republics.

     

12. The most crucial natural wealth of Inner Asia lies in its energy resources, namely petroleum and natural gas. Exploitation and transfer of this wealth to the consumer markets of the World in a most efficient and profitable way, will be the key factor for the development of the economies of these countries. The cost of delays and mistakes to be made in this respect will be very high for the NISIA countries. Regarding the exploitation of oil and gas resources in the Caspian Sea, “Legal Status of the Caspian Sea”, seems to be attracting attention. The final agreement between Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation, which accepts “Caspian” as a “sea”, further contributes to the ambiguity of the agreement among the five of the littoral states, as Iran stated that it would not recognize the agreement concluded between the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan.

     

13. It seems that – at least for the present moment – the great and regional powers of the world which have interests in the region will benefit from the continuation of stability in Inner Asia. It is a well-known fact that any severe turmoil which will start in the region will quickly and inevitably spread to the neighbouring territories. Knowing this fact, all the powers in the region are very cautious in their dealings with the region. This is a great advantage for the countries of Inner Asia. Together with their enormous underground wealth, this strategic advantage might bring a long-lasting stability to the region, which might end up with the achievement of a steady economic and social development.

Top of page